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SVN Slovenia - Prva Liga · Meci ·

NK Nafta 1903 vs NK Maribor

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–12.76 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde35%
Egal29%
Victorie oaspeți36%
Full model forecastVictorie oaspețiTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie oaspeți36% selection probability
Projected score1–1NK Nafta 1903NK Maribor
Expected goals2.76Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Peste52% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăDa56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
35% / 29% / 36%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie oaspeți36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.5%)Șansă dublă1271.5%1.40
Peste 52% · Sub 48%Goals 2.5Peste52%1.92
Da 56% · Nu 44%Ambele echipe marcheazăDa56%1.79
2.76 total expected goalsScor corect1–1
9.2 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
NK Nafta 1903 win35%2.86
Egal29%3.45
NK Maribor win36%2.78

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

NK Nafta 19031.36

Gazde share of expected goals 49.3%

Total expected goals2.76Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 52% · Sub 48%

NK Maribor1.40

Oaspeți share of expected goals 50.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitDa 56% · Nu 44%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

NK Nafta 1903

1.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puncte7

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

NK Maribor

2.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Puncte11

SignalOaspeți unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
35%
Câștig probability excluding draw
36%
7
Points from supplied form
11
1.36
Expected goals
1.40
NK Nafta 1903NK Maribor
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01NK Nafta 1903 signalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02NK Maribor signalOaspeți unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

NK Nafta 1903 vs NK Maribor FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie oaspeți · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

NK Nafta 1903 câștig 35%,Egal 29%,NK Maribor câștig 36%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.76 · Peste 2.5 52% · Current selection Peste