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SRB Serbia Super Liga · Round 1 ·

Steaua Rosie vs FK Novi Pazar

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score3–13.67 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde83%
Egal11%
Victorie oaspeți6%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 83% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde83% selection probability
Projected score3–1Steaua RosieFK Novi Pazar
Expected goals3.67Deschide match profile
Goals 2.5Peste71% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
83% / 11% / 6%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde83%1.20
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FK Novi Pazar win (5.5%)Șansă dublă1X94.5%1.06
Peste 71% · Sub 29%Goals 2.5Peste71%1.41
Da 49% · Nu 51%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu51%1.96
3.67 total expected goalsScor corect3–1
9.1 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.7%Largest probability gapSteaua Rosie winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Steaua Rosie win83%1.201.1183.6%-0.6 pp
Egal11%9.098.5010.9%+0.1 pp
FK Novi Pazar win6%16.6717.005.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Steaua Rosie2.94

Gazde share of expected goals 80.1%

Total expected goals3.67Deschide

Dedicated goals model: Peste 71% · Sub 29%

FK Novi Pazar0.73

Oaspeți share of expected goals 19.9%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitDa 49% · Nu 51%Match profileDeschide
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Steaua Rosie

2.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Puncte12

SignalGazde unbeaten 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

FK Novi Pazar

0.80pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Puncte4

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
83%
Câștig probability excluding draw
6%
12
Points from supplied form
4
2.94
Expected goals
0.73
Steaua RosieFK Novi Pazar
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Steaua Rosie signalGazde unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Novi Pazar signalGazde matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk17% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 11%.

Match questions

Steaua Rosie vs FK Novi Pazar FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 3–1 · 83% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Steaua Rosie câștig 83%,Egal 11%,FK Novi Pazar câștig 6%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.67 · Peste 2.5 71% · Current selection Peste