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SRB Serbia Super Liga · Round 1 ·

Ερυθρός Αστέρας vs Νόβι Πάζαρ

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Γηπεδούχος form
Projected score3–13.67 expected goals
Φιλοξενούμενος form
Νίκη γηπεδούχου83%
Ισοπαλία11%
Νίκη φιλοξενούμενου6%
Full model forecastΝίκη γηπεδούχουTier A · 83% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callΝίκη γηπεδούχου83% selection probability
Projected score3–1Ερυθρός ΑστέραςΝόβι Πάζαρ
Expected goals3.67Άνοιγμα match profile
Goals 2.5Άνω71% for the selected side
Σκοράρουν και οι δύοΌχι51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Κάτω 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketΕπιλογήΠιθανότηταΔίκαιη απόδοση
83% / 11% / 6%Αποτέλεσμα αγώναΝίκη γηπεδούχου83%1.20
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Νόβι Πάζαρ win (5.5%)Διπλή Ευκαιρία1X94.5%1.06
Άνω 71% · Κάτω 29%Goals 2.5Άνω71%1.41
Ναι 49% · Όχι 51%Σκοράρουν και οι δύοΌχι51%1.96
3.67 total expected goalsΑκριβές σκορ3–1
9.1 expected match cornersΚόρνερΚάτω 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.7%Largest probability gapΕρυθρός Αστέρας winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomeΠρόβλεψηΔίκαιη απόδοσηReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Ερυθρός Αστέρας win83%1.201.1183.6%-0.6 pp
Ισοπαλία11%9.098.5010.9%+0.1 pp
Νόβι Πάζαρ win6%16.6717.005.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Ερυθρός Αστέρας2.94

Γηπεδούχος share of expected goals 80.1%

Total expected goals3.67Άνοιγμα

Dedicated goals model: Άνω 71% · Κάτω 29%

Νόβι Πάζαρ0.73

Φιλοξενούμενος share of expected goals 19.9%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitΝαι 49% · Όχι 51%Match profileΆνοιγμα
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Γηπεδούχος-context · form sequence

Ερυθρός Αστέρας

2.40pts / match
Αγώνες5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Πόντοι12

SignalΓηπεδούχος unbeaten 4/5

Φιλοξενούμενος-context · form sequence

Νόβι Πάζαρ

0.80pts / match
Αγώνες5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Πόντοι4

SignalΓηπεδούχος matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
83%
Νίκη probability excluding draw
6%
12
Points from supplied form
4
2.94
Expected goals
0.73
Ερυθρός ΑστέραςΝόβι Πάζαρ
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Ερυθρός Αστέρας signalΓηπεδούχος unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Νόβι Πάζαρ signalΓηπεδούχος matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk17% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ισοπαλία probability alone is 11%.

Match questions

Ερυθρός Αστέρας vs Νόβι Πάζαρ FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Νίκη γηπεδούχου · Projected score 3–1 · 83% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Ερυθρός Αστέρας νίκη 83%,Ισοπαλία 11%,Νόβι Πάζαρ νίκη 6%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.67 · Άνω 2.5 71% · Current selection Άνω