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SRB Serbia Super Liga · Round 1 ·

Estrella Roja de Belgrado vs FK Novi Pazar

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score3–13.67 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local83%
Empate11%
Victoria visitante6%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 83% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local83% selection probability
Projected score3–1Estrella Roja de BelgradoFK Novi Pazar
Expected goals3.67Abrir match profile
Goals 2.5Más de71% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
83% / 11% / 6%Resultado del partidoVictoria local83%1.20
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FK Novi Pazar win (5.5%)Doble Oportunidad1X94.5%1.06
Más de 71% · Menos de 29%Goals 2.5Más de71%1.41
Sí 49% · No 51%Ambos equipos marcanNo51%1.96
3.67 total expected goalsMarcador exacto3–1
9.1 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.7%Largest probability gapEstrella Roja de Belgrado winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Estrella Roja de Belgrado win83%1.201.1183.6%-0.6 pp
Empate11%9.098.5010.9%+0.1 pp
FK Novi Pazar win6%16.6717.005.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Estrella Roja de Belgrado2.94

Local share of expected goals 80.1%

Total expected goals3.67Abrir

Dedicated goals model: Más de 71% · Menos de 29%

FK Novi Pazar0.73

Visitante share of expected goals 19.9%

Projected score3–1BTTS split 49% · No 51%Match profileAbrir
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Estrella Roja de Belgrado

2.40pts / match
Jugados5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Puntos12

SignalLocal unbeaten 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

FK Novi Pazar

0.80pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Puntos4

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
83%
Ganado probability excluding draw
6%
12
Points from supplied form
4
2.94
Expected goals
0.73
Estrella Roja de BelgradoFK Novi Pazar
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Estrella Roja de Belgrado signalLocal unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Novi Pazar signalLocal matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk17% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 11%.

Match questions

Estrella Roja de Belgrado vs FK Novi Pazar FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 3–1 · 83% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Estrella Roja de Belgrado ganada 83%,Empate 11%,FK Novi Pazar ganada 6%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.67 · Más de 2.5 71% · Current selection Más de