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MEX Mexico Liga MX · Partida ·

Necaxa vs Leon

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score2–12.77 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa45%
Empate25%
Vitória visitante30%
Baseline forecastVitória da casaTier C · 45% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa45% selection probability
Projected score2–1NecaxaLeon
Expected goals2.77Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Acima52% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamSim55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Acima 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
45% / 25% / 30%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.1%)Dupla Chance1274.9%1.34
Acima 52% · Abaixo 48%Goals 2.5Acima52%1.92
Sim 55% · Não 45%Ambas as equipes marcamSim55%1.82
2.77 total expected goalsPlacar exato2–1
9.9 expected match cornersEscanteiosAcima 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Não snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityOdds justas
Necaxa win45%2.22
Empate25%4.00
Leon win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Necaxa1.55

Mandante share of expected goals 56%

Total expected goals2.77Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Acima 52% · Abaixo 48%

Leon1.22

Visitante share of expected goals 44%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitSim 55% · Não 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Necaxa

1.40pts / match
Jogos5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Pontos7

SignalMandante matches over 2.5: 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Leon

0.60pts / match
Jogos5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Pontos3

SignalMandante unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
30%
7
Points from supplied form
3
1.55
Expected goals
1.22
NecaxaLeon
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Necaxa signalMandante matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Leon signalMandante unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Necaxa vs Leon FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Necaxa ganhou 45%,Empate 25%,Leon ganhou 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.77 · Acima 2.5 52% · Current selection Acima