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FIN Finlandia - Kolmonen · Mecz ·

LePa vs MPS

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score2–13.18 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy60%
Remis20%
Wygrana gości19%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 60% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy60% selection probability
Projected score2–1LePaMPS
Expected goals3.18Otwarcie match profile
Goals 2.5Powyżej62% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląTak54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Poniżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
60% / 20% / 19%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy60%1.67
Derived from 1X2 · excludes MPS win (19.2%)Podwójna szansa1X80.8%1.24
Powyżej 62% · Poniżej 38%Goals 2.5Powyżej62%1.61
Tak 54% · Nie 46%Obie drużyny strzeląTak54%1.85
3.18 total expected goalsDokładny wynik2–1
9.6 expected match cornersRożnePoniżej 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.9%Largest probability gapMPS winDifference-0.7 pp
OutcomePrognozaUczciwy kursReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
LePa win60%1.671.4859.9%+0.1 pp
Remis20%5.004.3320.5%-0.5 pp
MPS win19%5.264.5019.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

LePa2.25

Gospodarze share of expected goals 70.8%

Total expected goals3.18Otwarcie

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 62% · Poniżej 38%

MPS0.93

Goście share of expected goals 29.2%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitTak 54% · Nie 46%Match profileOtwarcie
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

LePa

3.00pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Punkty15

SignalGospodarze unbeaten 5/5

Goście-context · form sequence

MPS

0.20pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Punkty1

SignalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
60%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
19%
15
Points from supplied form
1
2.25
Expected goals
0.93
LePaMPS
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01LePa signalGospodarze unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02MPS signalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk40% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

LePa vs MPS FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 2–1 · 60% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

LePa wygrana 60%,Remis 20%,MPS wygrana 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.18 · Powyżej 2.5 62% · Current selection Powyżej