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SRB Serbia Prva Liga · Wedstrijd ·

FK Graficar Beograd vs Smederevo

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–11.84 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst44%
Gelijkspel30%
Uitwinst26%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst44% selection probability
Projected score1–1FK Graficar BeogradSmederevo
Expected goals1.84Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Onder72% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee64% for the selected side
Expected corners8.5Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
44% / 30% / 26%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Smederevo win (25.8%)Dubbele Kans1X74.2%1.35
Boven 28% · Onder 72%Goals 2.5Onder72%1.39
Ja 36% · Nee 64%Beide teams scorenNee64%1.56
1.84 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
8.5 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapFK Graficar Beograd winDifference-0.7 pp
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FK Graficar Beograd win44%2.272.0044.7%-0.7 pp
Gelijkspel30%3.333.0029.8%+0.2 pp
Smederevo win26%3.853.5025.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Graficar Beograd1.02

Thuis share of expected goals 55.4%

Total expected goals1.84Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Boven 28% · Onder 72%

Smederevo0.82

Uit share of expected goals 44.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 36% · Nee 64%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

FK Graficar Beograd

0.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punten3

SignalThuis matches under 2.5: 5/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Smederevo

2.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punten10

SignalThuis failed to score: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
26%
3
Points from supplied form
10
1.02
Expected goals
0.82
FK Graficar BeogradSmederevo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Graficar Beograd signalThuis matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Smederevo signalThuis failed to score: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

FK Graficar Beograd vs Smederevo FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Graficar Beograd gewonnen 44%,Gelijkspel 30%,Smederevo gewonnen 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.84 · Boven 2.5 28% · Current selection Onder