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LePa vs MPS

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–13.18 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier60%
Uavgjort20%
Borteseier19%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 60% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier60% selection probability
Projected score2–1LePaMPS
Expected goals3.18Åpning match profile
Goals 2.5Over62% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
60% / 20% / 19%KampresultatHjemmeseier60%1.67
Derived from 1X2 · excludes MPS win (19.2%)Dobbel sjanse1X80.8%1.24
Over 62% · Under 38%Goals 2.5Over62%1.61
Ja 54% · Nei 46%Begge lag scorerJa54%1.85
3.18 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.6 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.9%Largest probability gapMPS winDifference-0.7 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
LePa win60%1.671.4859.9%+0.1 pp
Uavgjort20%5.004.3320.5%-0.5 pp
MPS win19%5.264.5019.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

LePa2.25

Hjemme share of expected goals 70.8%

Total expected goals3.18Åpning

Dedicated goals model: Over 62% · Under 38%

MPS0.93

Borte share of expected goals 29.2%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 54% · Nei 46%Match profileÅpning
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

LePa

3.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Poeng15

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Borte-context · form sequence

MPS

0.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Poeng1

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
60%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
19%
15
Points from supplied form
1
2.25
Expected goals
0.93
LePaMPS
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01LePa signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02MPS signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk40% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

LePa vs MPS FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 60% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

LePa vunnet 60%,Uavgjort 20%,MPS vunnet 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.18 · Over 2.5 62% · Current selection Over