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SCO Scotland Premiership · Round 1 ·

Motherwell vs Aberdeen

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.44 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier57%
Uavgjort26%
Borteseier17%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier57% selection probability
Projected score2–1MotherwellAberdeen
Expected goals2.44Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under56% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei62% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
57% / 26% / 17%KampresultatHjemmeseier57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Aberdeen win (16.7%)Dobbel sjanse1X83.3%1.20
Over 44% · Under 56%Goals 2.5Under56%1.79
Ja 38% · Nei 62%Begge lag scorerNei62%1.61
2.44 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.4 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Motherwell win57%1.75
Uavgjort26%3.85
Aberdeen win17%5.88

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Motherwell1.84

Hjemme share of expected goals 75.4%

Total expected goals2.44Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 44% · Under 56%

Aberdeen0.60

Borte share of expected goals 24.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 38% · Nei 62%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Motherwell

1.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poeng7

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Aberdeen

0.60pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Poeng3

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
17%
7
Points from supplied form
3
1.84
Expected goals
0.60
MotherwellAberdeen
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Motherwell signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Aberdeen signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Motherwell vs Aberdeen FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Motherwell vunnet 57%,Uavgjort 26%,Aberdeen vunnet 17%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.44 · Over 2.5 44% · Current selection Under