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SCO Escocia - Premiership · Round 1 ·

Motherwell vs Aberdeen

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score2–12.44 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local57%
Empate26%
Victoria visitante17%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local57% selection probability
Projected score2–1MotherwellAberdeen
Expected goals2.44Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de56% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo62% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
57% / 26% / 17%Resultado del partidoVictoria local57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Aberdeen win (16.7%)Doble Oportunidad1X83.3%1.20
Más de 44% · Menos de 56%Goals 2.5Menos de56%1.79
Sí 38% · No 62%Ambos equipos marcanNo62%1.61
2.44 total expected goalsMarcador exacto2–1
9.4 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCuotas justas
Motherwell win57%1.75
Empate26%3.85
Aberdeen win17%5.88

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Motherwell1.84

Local share of expected goals 75.4%

Total expected goals2.44Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Más de 44% · Menos de 56%

Aberdeen0.60

Visitante share of expected goals 24.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 38% · No 62%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Motherwell

1.40pts / match
Jugados5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puntos7

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Aberdeen

0.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Puntos3

SignalLocal clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Ganado probability excluding draw
17%
7
Points from supplied form
3
1.84
Expected goals
0.60
MotherwellAberdeen
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Motherwell signalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Aberdeen signalLocal clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Motherwell vs Aberdeen FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Motherwell ganada 57%,Empate 26%,Aberdeen ganada 17%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.44 · Más de 2.5 44% · Current selection Menos de