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BHR Bahrain Premier League · Round 1 ·

Sitra vs Malkiya

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.73 expected goals
Away form
Home win23%
Draw34%
Away win43%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win43% selection probability
Projected score1–1SitraMalkiya
Expected goals1.73Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under75% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo69% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
23% / 34% / 43%Match resultAway win43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sitra win (23.5%)Double chanceX276.5%1.31
Over 25% · Under 75%Goals 2.5Under75%1.33
Yes 31% · No 69%Both teams scoreNo69%1.45
1.73 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.7 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Sitra win23%4.35
Draw34%2.94
Malkiya win43%2.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Sitra0.61

Home share of expected goals 35.3%

Total expected goals1.73Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 25% · Under 75%

Malkiya1.12

Away share of expected goals 64.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 31% · No 69%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Sitra

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalHome won 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Malkiya

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
23%
Win probability excluding draw
43%
9
Points from supplied form
9
0.61
Expected goals
1.12
SitraMalkiya
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Sitra signalHome won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Malkiya signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 34%.

Match questions

Sitra vs Malkiya FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Sitra win 23%,Draw 34%,Malkiya win 43%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.73 · Over 2.5 25% · Current selection Under