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CHL Chile Tercera · Fixture ·

Chimbarongo FC vs Lautaro de Buin

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.41 expected goals
Away form
Home win26%
Draw26%
Away win48%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win48% selection probability
Projected score1–1Chimbarongo FCLautaro de Buin
Expected goals2.41Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under57% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo51% for the selected side
Expected corners10.5Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
26% / 26% / 48%Match resultAway win48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.9%)Double chance1274.1%1.35
Over 43% · Under 57%Goals 2.5Under57%1.75
Yes 49% · No 51%Both teams scoreNo51%1.96
2.41 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
10.5 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapLautaro de Buin winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Chimbarongo FC win26%3.853.5025.6%+0.4 pp
Draw26%3.853.5025.6%+0.4 pp
Lautaro de Buin win48%2.081.8348.9%-0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Chimbarongo FC1.14

Home share of expected goals 47.3%

Total expected goals2.41Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 43% · Under 57%

Lautaro de Buin1.27

Away share of expected goals 52.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 49% · No 51%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Chimbarongo FC

0.20pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Points1

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Lautaro de Buin

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalHome failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
26%
Win probability excluding draw
48%
1
Points from supplied form
10
1.14
Expected goals
1.27
Chimbarongo FCLautaro de Buin
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Chimbarongo FC signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lautaro de Buin signalHome failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Chimbarongo FC vs Lautaro de Buin FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Chimbarongo FC win 26%,Draw 26%,Lautaro de Buin win 48%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.41 · Over 2.5 43% · Current selection Under