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POL Poland I Liga · Fixture ·

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Termalica BB Nieciecza

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–12.96 expected goals
Away form
Home win36%
Draw27%
Away win37%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win37% selection probability
Projected score2–1Pogon Grodzisk MazowieckiTermalica BB Nieciecza
Expected goals2.96Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over57% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes60% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
36% / 27% / 37%Match resultAway win37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.8%)Double chance1273.2%1.37
Over 57% · Under 43%Goals 2.5Over57%1.75
Yes 60% · No 40%Both teams scoreYes60%1.67
2.96 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
10.9 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.3%Largest probability gapPogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki win36%2.782.5035.6%+0.4 pp
Draw27%3.703.3027%0.0 pp
Termalica BB Nieciecza win37%2.702.3837.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki1.59

Home share of expected goals 53.7%

Total expected goals2.96Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 57% · Under 43%

Termalica BB Nieciecza1.37

Away share of expected goals 46.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 60% · No 40%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

2.20pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalHome unbeaten 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Termalica BB Nieciecza

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Win probability excluding draw
37%
11
Points from supplied form
6
1.59
Expected goals
1.37
Pogon Grodzisk MazowieckiTermalica BB Nieciecza
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki signalHome unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Termalica BB Nieciecza signalHome clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Termalica BB Nieciecza FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 2–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki win 36%,Draw 27%,Termalica BB Nieciecza win 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.96 · Over 2.5 57% · Current selection Over