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KAZ Kazakhstan Premier League · Round 25 ·

FK Atyrau vs FK Aktobe

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.97 expected goals
Away form
Home win31%
Draw29%
Away win40%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win40% selection probability
Projected score1–1FK AtyrauFK Aktobe
Expected goals1.97Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under68% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo60% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
31% / 29% / 40%Match resultAway win40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.3%)Double chance1270.7%1.41
Over 32% · Under 68%Goals 2.5Under68%1.47
Yes 40% · No 60%Both teams scoreNo60%1.67
1.97 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.0 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.0%Largest probability gapFK Atyrau winDifference+1.0 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FK Atyrau win31%3.233.0030%+1.0 pp
Draw29%3.453.1029%0.0 pp
FK Aktobe win40%2.502.2040.9%-0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Atyrau1.07

Home share of expected goals 54.3%

Total expected goals1.97Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 32% · Under 68%

FK Aktobe0.90

Away share of expected goals 45.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 40% · No 60%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

FK Atyrau

0.20pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Points1

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Away-context · form sequence

FK Aktobe

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalAway won 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
31%
Win probability excluding draw
40%
1
Points from supplied form
9
1.07
Expected goals
0.90
FK AtyrauFK Aktobe
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Atyrau signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Aktobe signalAway won 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

FK Atyrau vs FK Aktobe FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Atyrau win 31%,Draw 29%,FK Aktobe win 40%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.97 · Over 2.5 32% · Current selection Under