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ARG Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Fixture ·

Argentino de Rosario vs Club Mercedes

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.98 expected goals
Away form
Home win26%
Draw32%
Away win43%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win43% selection probability
Projected score1–1Argentino de RosarioClub Mercedes
Expected goals1.98Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under68% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo62% for the selected side
Expected corners7.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
26% / 32% / 43%Match resultAway win43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Argentino de Rosario win (25.5%)Double chanceX274.5%1.34
Over 32% · Under 68%Goals 2.5Under68%1.47
Yes 38% · No 62%Both teams scoreNo62%1.61
1.98 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
7.7 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Argentino de Rosario win26%3.85
Draw32%3.13
Club Mercedes win43%2.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Argentino de Rosario0.75

Home share of expected goals 37.9%

Total expected goals1.98Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 32% · Under 68%

Club Mercedes1.23

Away share of expected goals 62.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 38% · No 62%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Argentino de Rosario

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Points3

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Club Mercedes

2.20pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
26%
Win probability excluding draw
43%
3
Points from supplied form
11
0.75
Expected goals
1.23
Argentino de RosarioClub Mercedes
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Argentino de Rosario signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Club Mercedes signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

Argentino de Rosario vs Club Mercedes FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Argentino de Rosario win 26%,Draw 32%,Club Mercedes win 43%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.98 · Over 2.5 32% · Current selection Under