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EST Estonia Meistriliiga · Round 23 ·

JK Trans Narva vs Paide Linnameeskond

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–22.69 expected goals
Away form
Home win26%
Draw25%
Away win49%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win49% selection probability
Projected score1–2JK Trans NarvaPaide Linnameeskond
Expected goals2.69Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over50% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo53% for the selected side
Expected corners10.5Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
26% / 25% / 49%Match resultAway win49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25%)Double chance1275%1.33
Over 50% · Under 50%Goals 2.5Over50%2.00
Yes 47% · No 53%Both teams scoreNo53%1.89
2.69 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
10.5 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.7%Largest probability gapPaide Linnameeskond winDifference+1.5 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
JK Trans Narva win26%3.853.3027.4%-1.4 pp
Draw25%4.003.6025.1%-0.1 pp
Paide Linnameeskond win49%2.041.9047.5%+1.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

JK Trans Narva0.81

Home share of expected goals 30.1%

Total expected goals2.69Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 50% · Under 50%

Paide Linnameeskond1.88

Away share of expected goals 69.9%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 47% · No 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

JK Trans Narva

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Paide Linnameeskond

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
26%
Win probability excluding draw
49%
6
Points from supplied form
10
0.81
Expected goals
1.88
JK Trans NarvaPaide Linnameeskond
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01JK Trans Narva signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Paide Linnameeskond signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

JK Trans Narva vs Paide Linnameeskond FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

JK Trans Narva win 26%,Draw 25%,Paide Linnameeskond win 49%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.69 · Over 2.5 50% · Current selection Over