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CHN China Super League · Round 22 ·

Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai Port

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.20 expected goals
Away form
Home win34%
Draw31%
Away win35%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 35% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win35% selection probability
Projected score1–1Chongqing TonglianglongShanghai Port
Expected goals2.20Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under62% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
34% / 31% / 35%Match resultAway win35%2.86
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (31%)Double chance1269%1.45
Over 38% · Under 62%Goals 2.5Under62%1.61
Yes 45% · No 55%Both teams scoreNo55%1.82
2.20 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
10.0 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Chongqing Tonglianglong win34%2.94
Draw31%3.23
Shanghai Port win35%2.86

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Chongqing Tonglianglong1.08

Home share of expected goals 49.1%

Total expected goals2.20Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 38% · Under 62%

Shanghai Port1.12

Away share of expected goals 50.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 45% · No 55%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Chongqing Tonglianglong

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Shanghai Port

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
34%
Win probability excluding draw
35%
4
Points from supplied form
7
1.08
Expected goals
1.12
Chongqing TonglianglongShanghai Port
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Chongqing Tonglianglong signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Shanghai Port signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk65% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai Port FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 35% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Chongqing Tonglianglong win 34%,Draw 31%,Shanghai Port win 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.20 · Over 2.5 38% · Current selection Under