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EUR UEFA Europa League - Qual. · Partita ·

Lech Poznan vs Thun

Market-based forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–12.67 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa57%
Pareggio24%
Vittoria ospite19%
Market-based forecastVittoria casaTier B · 57% selection probability
Market-based forecast · Tier B

Match prediction

Market-led fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa57% selection probability
Projected score2–1Lech PoznanThun
Expected goals2.67Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra50% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
57% / 24% / 19%Esito partitaVittoria casa57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Thun win (19.2%)Doppia Chance1X80.8%1.24
Sopra 50% · Sotto 50%Goals 2.5Sopra50%2.00
Sì 53% · No 47%Entrambe le squadre segnano53%1.89
2.67 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
9.5 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Reference market used for this forecast

This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.

Displayed margin10.0%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimNessuno
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Lech Poznan win57%1.751.5757.9%
Pareggio24%4.173.8023.9%
Thun win19%5.265.0018.2%

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lech Poznan1.68

Casa share of expected goals 62.9%

Total expected goals2.67Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 50% · Sotto 50%

Thun0.99

Trasferta share of expected goals 37.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 53% · No 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Lech Poznan

2.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punti12

SignalCasa unbeaten 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Thun

0.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punti4

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Vinta probability excluding draw
19%
12
Points from supplied form
4
1.68
Expected goals
0.99
Lech PoznanThun
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-led fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lech Poznan signalCasa unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Thun signalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Lech Poznan vs Thun FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lech Poznan vinta 57%,Pareggio 24%,Thun vinta 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.67 · Sopra 2.5 50% · Current selection Sopra