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MEX Messico - Liga de Expansion · Partita ·

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tepatitlan de Morelos

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–11.47 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa27%
Pareggio36%
Vittoria ospite37%
Full model forecastVittoria ospiteTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria ospite37% selection probability
Projected score1–1Cruz Azul HidalgoTepatitlan de Morelos
Expected goals1.47Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto82% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo73% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
27% / 36% / 37%Esito partitaVittoria ospite37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cruz Azul Hidalgo win (26.7%)Doppia ChanceX273.3%1.36
Sopra 18% · Sotto 82%Goals 2.5Sotto82%1.22
Sì 27% · No 73%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo73%1.37
1.47 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
10.3 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Cruz Azul Hidalgo win27%3.70
Pareggio36%2.78
Tepatitlan de Morelos win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo0.61

Casa share of expected goals 41.5%

Total expected goals1.47Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 18% · Sotto 82%

Tepatitlan de Morelos0.86

Trasferta share of expected goals 58.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 27% · No 73%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

0.60pts / match
Giocate5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Punti3

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Tepatitlan de Morelos

0.60pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punti3

SignalTrasferta matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
27%
Vinta probability excluding draw
37%
3
Points from supplied form
3
0.61
Expected goals
0.86
Cruz Azul HidalgoTepatitlan de Morelos
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cruz Azul Hidalgo signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tepatitlan de Morelos signalTrasferta matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 36%.

Match questions

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tepatitlan de Morelos FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria ospite · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vinta 27%,Pareggio 36%,Tepatitlan de Morelos vinta 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.47 · Sopra 2.5 18% · Current selection Sotto