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MEX México - Liga de Expansión · Partido ·

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tepatitlán de Morelos

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–11.47 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local27%
Empate36%
Victoria visitante37%
Full model forecastVictoria visitanteTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria visitante37% selection probability
Projected score1–1Cruz Azul HidalgoTepatitlán de Morelos
Expected goals1.47Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de82% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo73% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Más de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
27% / 36% / 37%Resultado del partidoVictoria visitante37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cruz Azul Hidalgo win (26.7%)Doble OportunidadX273.3%1.36
Más de 18% · Menos de 82%Goals 2.5Menos de82%1.22
Sí 27% · No 73%Ambos equipos marcanNo73%1.37
1.47 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–1
10.3 expected match cornersCórnersMás de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCuotas justas
Cruz Azul Hidalgo win27%3.70
Empate36%2.78
Tepatitlán de Morelos win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo0.61

Local share of expected goals 41.5%

Total expected goals1.47Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Más de 18% · Menos de 82%

Tepatitlán de Morelos0.86

Visitante share of expected goals 58.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 27% · No 73%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

0.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Puntos3

SignalLocal failed to score: 2/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Tepatitlán de Morelos

0.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Puntos3

SignalVisitante matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
27%
Ganado probability excluding draw
37%
3
Points from supplied form
3
0.61
Expected goals
0.86
Cruz Azul HidalgoTepatitlán de Morelos
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cruz Azul Hidalgo signalLocal failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tepatitlán de Morelos signalVisitante matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 36%.

Match questions

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tepatitlán de Morelos FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria visitante · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cruz Azul Hidalgo ganada 27%,Empate 36%,Tepatitlán de Morelos ganada 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.47 · Más de 2.5 18% · Current selection Menos de