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CHN China Super League · Fixture ·

Henan vs Qingdao West Coast

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.29 expected goals
Away form
Home win59%
Draw24%
Away win17%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 59% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win59% selection probability
Projected score1–1HenanQingdao West Coast
Expected goals2.29Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under60% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
59% / 24% / 17%Match resultHome win59%1.69
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Qingdao West Coast win (17.3%)Double chance1X82.7%1.21
Over 40% · Under 60%Goals 2.5Under60%1.67
Yes 43% · No 57%Both teams scoreNo57%1.75
2.29 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.8 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.9%Largest probability gapHenan winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Henan win59%1.691.5759.6%-0.6 pp
Draw24%4.174.0023.4%+0.6 pp
Qingdao West Coast win17%5.885.5017%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Henan1.48

Home share of expected goals 64.6%

Total expected goals2.29Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 40% · Under 60%

Qingdao West Coast0.81

Away share of expected goals 35.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 43% · No 57%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Henan

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Qingdao West Coast

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
59%
Win probability excluding draw
17%
7
Points from supplied form
10
1.48
Expected goals
0.81
HenanQingdao West Coast
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Henan signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Qingdao West Coast signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk41% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Henan vs Qingdao West Coast FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 59% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Henan win 59%,Draw 24%,Qingdao West Coast win 17%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.29 · Over 2.5 40% · Current selection Under