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JPN Japan J-League · Fixture ·

Mito Hollyhock vs Gamba Osaka

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–23.65 expected goals
Away form
Home win33%
Draw28%
Away win38%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win38% selection probability
Projected score1–2Mito HollyhockGamba Osaka
Expected goals3.65Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over71% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes68% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
33% / 28% / 38%Match resultAway win38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.4%)Double chance1271.6%1.40
Over 71% · Under 29%Goals 2.5Over71%1.41
Yes 68% · No 32%Both teams scoreYes68%1.47
3.65 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
8.9 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.6%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-1.0 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Mito Hollyhock win33%3.032.7533.8%-0.8 pp
Draw28%3.573.2029%-1.0 pp
Gamba Osaka win38%2.632.5037.2%+0.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Mito Hollyhock1.45

Home share of expected goals 39.7%

Total expected goals3.65Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 71% · Under 29%

Gamba Osaka2.20

Away share of expected goals 60.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 68% · No 32%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Mito Hollyhock

0.00pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn0Losses5Points0

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Gamba Osaka

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
33%
Win probability excluding draw
38%
0
Points from supplied form
9
1.45
Expected goals
2.20
Mito HollyhockGamba Osaka
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Mito Hollyhock signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Gamba Osaka signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Mito Hollyhock vs Gamba Osaka FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Mito Hollyhock win 33%,Draw 28%,Gamba Osaka win 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.65 · Over 2.5 71% · Current selection Over