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LTU Lithuania II Lyga · Fixture ·

DFK Dainava II vs FKS Ukmerge

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–34.69 expected goals
Away form
Home win17%
Draw18%
Away win65%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 65% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win65% selection probability
Projected score2–3DFK Dainava IIFKS Ukmerge
Expected goals4.69Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over85% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes80% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
17% / 18% / 65%Match resultAway win65%1.54
Derived from 1X2 · excludes DFK Dainava II win (16.9%)Double chanceX283.1%1.20
Over 85% · Under 15%Goals 2.5Over85%1.18
Yes 80% · No 20%Both teams scoreYes80%1.25
4.69 total expected goalsCorrect score2–3
9.7 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.7%Largest probability gapFKS Ukmerge winDifference-0.8 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
DFK Dainava II win17%5.885.5016.3%+0.7 pp
Draw18%5.565.0017.9%+0.1 pp
FKS Ukmerge win65%1.541.3665.8%-0.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

DFK Dainava II1.86

Home share of expected goals 39.7%

Total expected goals4.69Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 85% · Under 15%

FKS Ukmerge2.83

Away share of expected goals 60.3%

Projected score2–3BTTS splitYes 80% · No 20%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

DFK Dainava II

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

FKS Ukmerge

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalAway won 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
17%
Win probability excluding draw
65%
3
Points from supplied form
9
1.86
Expected goals
2.83
DFK Dainava IIFKS Ukmerge
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01DFK Dainava II signalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FKS Ukmerge signalAway won 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk35% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 18%.

Match questions

DFK Dainava II vs FKS Ukmerge FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 2–3 · 65% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

DFK Dainava II win 17%,Draw 18%,FKS Ukmerge win 65%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 4.69 · Over 2.5 85% · Current selection Over