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CHN China Division 1 · Fixture ·

Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Dalian K'un City

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score3–25.25 expected goals
Away form
Home win43%
Draw22%
Away win35%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win43% selection probability
Projected score3–2Dingnan Ganlian FCDalian K'un City
Expected goals5.25Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over89% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes86% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
43% / 22% / 35%Match resultHome win43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (22.2%)Double chance1277.8%1.29
Over 89% · Under 11%Goals 2.5Over89%1.12
Yes 86% · No 14%Both teams scoreYes86%1.16
5.25 total expected goalsCorrect score3–2
10.2 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Dingnan Ganlian FC win43%2.33
Draw22%4.55
Dalian K'un City win35%2.86

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Dingnan Ganlian FC2.80

Home share of expected goals 53.3%

Total expected goals5.25Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 89% · Under 11%

Dalian K'un City2.45

Away share of expected goals 46.7%

Projected score3–2BTTS splitYes 86% · No 14%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Dingnan Ganlian FC

0.40pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Dalian K'un City

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Win probability excluding draw
35%
2
Points from supplied form
5
2.80
Expected goals
2.45
Dingnan Ganlian FCDalian K'un City
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Dingnan Ganlian FC signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Dalian K'un City signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 22%.

Match questions

Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Dalian K'un City FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 3–2 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Dingnan Ganlian FC win 43%,Draw 22%,Dalian K'un City win 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 5.25 · Over 2.5 89% · Current selection Over