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PRT Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Final ·

Limianos vs Chaves B

Prediction review

Home form
Final score3–1Forecast 2–1
Away form
Home win37%
Draw28%
Away win35%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 37% selection probability
Prediction Won
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win37% selection probability
Projected score2–1LimianosChaves B
Expected goals2.95Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over57% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes60% for the selected side
Expected corners8.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
37% / 28% / 35%Match resultHome win37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.1%)Double chance1271.9%1.39
Over 57% · Under 43%Goals 2.5Over57%1.75
Yes 60% · No 40%Both teams scoreYes60%1.67
2.95 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
8.6 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Limianos win37%2.70
Draw28%3.57
Chaves B win35%2.86

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Limianos1.51

Home share of expected goals 51.2%

Total expected goals2.95Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 57% · Under 43%

Chaves B1.44

Away share of expected goals 48.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 60% · No 40%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Limianos

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Chaves B

1.60pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Win probability excluding draw
35%
4
Points from supplied form
8
1.51
Expected goals
1.44
LimianosChaves B
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Limianos signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Chaves B signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Limianos vs Chaves B FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Limianos win 37%,Draw 28%,Chaves B win 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.95 · Over 2.5 57% · Current selection Over