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SCO Scotland Lowland League · Fixture ·

Cowdenbeath vs Broxburn Athletic

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–23.87 expected goals
Away form
Home win35%
Draw24%
Away win41%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win41% selection probability
Projected score2–2CowdenbeathBroxburn Athletic
Expected goals3.87Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over74% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes71% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
35% / 24% / 41%Match resultAway win41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (23.8%)Double chance1276.2%1.31
Over 74% · Under 26%Goals 2.5Over74%1.35
Yes 71% · No 29%Both teams scoreYes71%1.41
3.87 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
9.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapBroxburn Athletic winDifference-1.8 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cowdenbeath win35%2.862.7033.3%+1.7 pp
Draw24%4.173.7524%0.0 pp
Broxburn Athletic win41%2.442.1042.8%-1.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cowdenbeath2.37

Home share of expected goals 61.2%

Total expected goals3.87Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 74% · Under 26%

Broxburn Athletic1.50

Away share of expected goals 38.8%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 71% · No 29%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Cowdenbeath

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Broxburn Athletic

0.40pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2

SignalAway matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
35%
Win probability excluding draw
41%
5
Points from supplied form
2
2.37
Expected goals
1.50
CowdenbeathBroxburn Athletic
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cowdenbeath signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Broxburn Athletic signalAway matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Cowdenbeath vs Broxburn Athletic FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 2–2 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cowdenbeath win 35%,Draw 24%,Broxburn Athletic win 41%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.87 · Over 2.5 74% · Current selection Over