Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
56% / 28% / 16%Match resultHome win56%1.79
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Almagro win (15.9%)Double chance1X84.1%1.19
Over 37% · Under 63%Goals 2.5Under63%1.59
Yes 33% · No 67%Both teams scoreNo67%1.49
2.19 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1——
8.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5——
Probability view
Forecast probabilities and fair odds
No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.
OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
CD Moron win56%1.79
Draw28%3.57
Almagro win16%6.25
Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 76.7%
Total expected goals2.19Low-scoring
Dedicated goals model: Over 37% · Under 63%
Away share of expected goals 23.3%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 33% · No 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
1.40pts / matchCD Moron
WLWDL
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.00pts / matchAlmagro
DLDWL
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5
SignalHome unbeaten in 3 recent home matches
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
56%
Win probability excluding draw
16%7
Points from supplied form
51.68
Expected goals
0.51CD MoronAlmagro
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.
Match questions
CD Moron vs Almagro FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 56% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
CD Moron win 56%，Draw 28%，Almagro win 16%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.19 · Over 2.5 37% · Current selection Under。