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EUR UEFA Super Cup · Match ·

PSG vs Aston Villa

Archived pre-match prediction

Domicile form
Projected score1–12.63 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile44%
Nul26%
Victoire à l’extérieur30%
Baseline forecastVictoire à domicileTier C · 44% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile44% selection probability
Projected score1–1PSGAston Villa
Expected goals2.63Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de51% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui53% for the selected side
Expected corners0.0Non corner projection
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
44% / 26% / 30%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.9%)Double chance1274.1%1.35
Plus de 49% · Moins de 51%Goals 2.5Moins de51%1.96
Oui 53% · Non 47%Les deux équipes marquentOui53%1.89
2.63 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
0.0 expected match cornersCornersNon corner projection
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
PSG win44%2.27
Nul26%3.85
Aston Villa win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

PSG1.46

Domicile share of expected goals 55.5%

Total expected goals2.63Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 49% · Moins de 51%

Aston Villa1.17

Extérieur share of expected goals 44.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 53% · Non 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

PSG

0.50pts / match
Joués2Wins0Drawn1Losses1Points1

SignalExtérieur matches over 2.5: 5/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Aston Villa

1.20pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalExtérieur won 2/4 recent away matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Gagné probability excluding draw
30%
1
Points from supplied form
6
1.46
Expected goals
1.17
PSGAston Villa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01PSG signalExtérieur matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Aston Villa signalExtérieur won 2/4 recent away matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

PSG vs Aston Villa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

PSG victoire 44%,Nul 26%,Aston Villa victoire 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.63 · Plus de 2.5 49% · Current selection Moins de