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MEX Mexique - Liga de Expansion · Match ·

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tepatitlan de Morelos

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–11.47 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile27%
Nul36%
Victoire à l’extérieur37%
Full model forecastVictoire à l’extérieurTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à l’extérieur37% selection probability
Projected score1–1Cruz Azul HidalgoTepatitlan de Morelos
Expected goals1.47Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de82% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon73% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
27% / 36% / 37%Résultat du matchVictoire à l’extérieur37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cruz Azul Hidalgo win (26.7%)Double chanceX273.3%1.36
Plus de 18% · Moins de 82%Goals 2.5Moins de82%1.22
Oui 27% · Non 73%Les deux équipes marquentNon73%1.37
1.47 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
10.3 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
Cruz Azul Hidalgo win27%3.70
Nul36%2.78
Tepatitlan de Morelos win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo0.61

Domicile share of expected goals 41.5%

Total expected goals1.47Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 18% · Moins de 82%

Tepatitlan de Morelos0.86

Extérieur share of expected goals 58.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 27% · Non 73%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

0.60pts / match
Joués5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Points3

SignalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Tepatitlan de Morelos

0.60pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalExtérieur matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
27%
Gagné probability excluding draw
37%
3
Points from supplied form
3
0.61
Expected goals
0.86
Cruz Azul HidalgoTepatitlan de Morelos
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cruz Azul Hidalgo signalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tepatitlan de Morelos signalExtérieur matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 36%.

Match questions

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tepatitlan de Morelos FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à l’extérieur · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cruz Azul Hidalgo victoire 27%,Nul 36%,Tepatitlan de Morelos victoire 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.47 · Plus de 2.5 18% · Current selection Moins de