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ARG Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · Round 28 ·

Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–12.32 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local29%
Empate30%
Victoria visitante40%
Full model forecastVictoria visitanteTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria visitante40% selection probability
Projected score1–1Deportivo MerloSportivo Italiano
Expected goals2.32Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de59% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
29% / 30% / 40%Resultado del partidoVictoria visitante40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Deportivo Merlo win (29.4%)Doble OportunidadX270.6%1.42
Más de 41% · Menos de 59%Goals 2.5Menos de59%1.69
Sí 47% · No 53%Ambos equipos marcanNo53%1.89
2.32 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–1
8.7 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCuotas justas
Deportivo Merlo win29%3.45
Empate30%3.33
Sportivo Italiano win40%2.50

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Deportivo Merlo0.99

Local share of expected goals 42.7%

Total expected goals2.32Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Más de 41% · Menos de 59%

Sportivo Italiano1.33

Visitante share of expected goals 57.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 47% · No 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Deportivo Merlo

1.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Puntos6

SignalLocal unbeaten 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Sportivo Italiano

2.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Puntos10

SignalVisitante unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
29%
Ganado probability excluding draw
40%
6
Points from supplied form
10
0.99
Expected goals
1.33
Deportivo MerloSportivo Italiano
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Deportivo Merlo signalLocal unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sportivo Italiano signalVisitante unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria visitante · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Deportivo Merlo ganada 29%,Empate 30%,Sportivo Italiano ganada 40%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.32 · Más de 2.5 41% · Current selection Menos de