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ARG Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · Round 29 ·

Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.34 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr34%
Uafgjort33%
Udesejr34%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 34% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr34% selection probability
Projected score1–1Deportivo MerloSportivo Italiano
Expected goals2.34Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under59% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
34% / 33% / 34%KampresultatHjemmesejr34%2.94
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (32.5%)Dobbeltchance1267.5%1.48
Over 41% · Under 59%Goals 2.5Under59%1.69
Ja 47% · Nej 53%Begge hold scorerNej53%1.89
2.34 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
8.7 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.8%Largest probability gapSportivo Italiano winDifference+1.2 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Deportivo Merlo win34%2.942.6334.3%-0.3 pp
Uafgjort33%3.032.7532.8%+0.2 pp
Sportivo Italiano win34%2.942.7532.8%+1.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Deportivo Merlo1.00

Hjemme share of expected goals 42.7%

Total expected goals2.34Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 41% · Under 59%

Sportivo Italiano1.34

Ude share of expected goals 57.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 47% · Nej 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Deportivo Merlo

1.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Point6

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Sportivo Italiano

2.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Point10

SignalUde unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
34%
Vundet probability excluding draw
34%
6
Points from supplied form
10
1.00
Expected goals
1.34
Deportivo MerloSportivo Italiano
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Deportivo Merlo signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sportivo Italiano signalUde unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk66% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 33%.

Match questions

Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 34% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Deportivo Merlo vundet 34%,Uafgjort 33%,Sportivo Italiano vundet 34%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.34 · Over 2.5 41% · Current selection Under