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CHL Chile - Tercera División · Partido ·

Naval Talcahuano vs Club Aguara

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score2–12.93 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local41%
Empate28%
Victoria visitante31%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local41% selection probability
Projected score2–1Naval TalcahuanoClub Aguara
Expected goals2.93Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Más de56% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcan59% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Más de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
41% / 28% / 31%Resultado del partidoVictoria local41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.7%)Doble Oportunidad1272.3%1.38
Más de 56% · Menos de 44%Goals 2.5Más de56%1.79
Sí 59% · No 41%Ambos equipos marcan59%1.69
2.93 total expected goalsMarcador exacto2–1
10.2 expected match cornersCórnersMás de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCuotas justas
Naval Talcahuano win41%2.44
Empate28%3.57
Club Aguara win31%3.23

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Naval Talcahuano1.64

Local share of expected goals 56%

Total expected goals2.93Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Más de 56% · Menos de 44%

Club Aguara1.29

Visitante share of expected goals 44%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 59% · No 41%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Naval Talcahuano

2.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Puntos11

SignalLocal unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Club Aguara

1.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Puntos6

SignalVisitante unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Ganado probability excluding draw
31%
11
Points from supplied form
6
1.64
Expected goals
1.29
Naval TalcahuanoClub Aguara
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Naval Talcahuano signalLocal unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Club Aguara signalVisitante unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Naval Talcahuano vs Club Aguara FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 2–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Naval Talcahuano ganada 41%,Empate 28%,Club Aguara ganada 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.93 · Más de 2.5 56% · Current selection Más de