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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Τεπατιτλάν ντε Μορέλος vs Club Atletico La Paz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Γηπεδούχος form
Projected score2–12.61 expected goals
Φιλοξενούμενος form
Νίκη γηπεδούχου44%
Ισοπαλία26%
Νίκη φιλοξενούμενου30%
Full model forecastΝίκη γηπεδούχουTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callΝίκη γηπεδούχου44% selection probability
Projected score2–1Τεπατιτλάν ντε ΜορέλοςClub Atletico La Paz
Expected goals2.61Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Κάτω52% for the selected side
Σκοράρουν και οι δύοΌχι52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Άνω 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketΕπιλογήΠιθανότηταΔίκαιη απόδοση
44% / 26% / 30%Αποτέλεσμα αγώναΝίκη γηπεδούχου44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26%)Διπλή Ευκαιρία1274%1.35
Άνω 48% · Κάτω 52%Goals 2.5Κάτω52%1.92
Ναι 48% · Όχι 52%Σκοράρουν και οι δύοΌχι52%1.92
2.61 total expected goalsΑκριβές σκορ2–1
10.1 expected match cornersΚόρνερΆνω 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.6%Largest probability gapΤεπατιτλάν ντε Μορέλος winDifference+1.3 pp
OutcomeΠρόβλεψηΔίκαιη απόδοσηReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Τεπατιτλάν ντε Μορέλος win44%2.272.2042.7%+1.3 pp
Ισοπαλία26%3.853.6026.1%-0.1 pp
Club Atletico La Paz win30%3.333.0031.3%-1.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Τεπατιτλάν ντε Μορέλος1.74

Γηπεδούχος share of expected goals 66.7%

Total expected goals2.61Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Άνω 48% · Κάτω 52%

Club Atletico La Paz0.87

Φιλοξενούμενος share of expected goals 33.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitΝαι 48% · Όχι 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Γηπεδούχος-context · form sequence

Τεπατιτλάν ντε Μορέλος

1.20pts / match
Αγώνες5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Πόντοι6

SignalΓηπεδούχος failed to score: 2/5

Φιλοξενούμενος-context · form sequence

Club Atletico La Paz

0.20pts / match
Αγώνες5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Πόντοι1

SignalΓηπεδούχος won 2/3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Νίκη probability excluding draw
30%
6
Points from supplied form
1
1.74
Expected goals
0.87
Τεπατιτλάν ντε ΜορέλοςClub Atletico La Paz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Τεπατιτλάν ντε Μορέλος signalΓηπεδούχος failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Club Atletico La Paz signalΓηπεδούχος won 2/3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ισοπαλία probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Τεπατιτλάν ντε Μορέλος vs Club Atletico La Paz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Νίκη γηπεδούχου · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Τεπατιτλάν ντε Μορέλος νίκη 44%,Ισοπαλία 26%,Club Atletico La Paz νίκη 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.61 · Άνω 2.5 48% · Current selection Κάτω