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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico La Paz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.61 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg44%
Unentschieden26%
Auswärtssieg30%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg44% selection probability
Projected score2–1Tepatitlan de MorelosClub Atletico La Paz
Expected goals2.61Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Unter52% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
44% / 26% / 30%SpielergebnisHeimsieg44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26%)Doppelte Chance1274%1.35
Über 48% · Unter 52%Goals 2.5Unter52%1.92
Ja 48% · Nein 52%Beide Teams treffenNein52%1.92
2.61 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
10.1 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.6%Largest probability gapTepatitlan de Morelos winDifference+1.3 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Tepatitlan de Morelos win44%2.272.2042.7%+1.3 pp
Unentschieden26%3.853.6026.1%-0.1 pp
Club Atletico La Paz win30%3.333.0031.3%-1.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Tepatitlan de Morelos1.74

Heim share of expected goals 66.7%

Total expected goals2.61Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 48% · Unter 52%

Club Atletico La Paz0.87

Auswärts share of expected goals 33.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nein 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Tepatitlan de Morelos

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punkte6

SignalHeim failed to score: 2/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Club Atletico La Paz

0.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Punkte1

SignalHeim won 2/3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
30%
6
Points from supplied form
1
1.74
Expected goals
0.87
Tepatitlan de MorelosClub Atletico La Paz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Tepatitlan de Morelos signalHeim failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Club Atletico La Paz signalHeim won 2/3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico La Paz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Tepatitlan de Morelos Gewinn 44%,Unentschieden 26%,Club Atletico La Paz Gewinn 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.61 · Über 2.5 48% · Current selection Unter