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BRA Brasilien - Paulista Cup · Spiel ·

União São João vs Comercial SP

Market-based forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–12.27 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg46%
Unentschieden30%
Auswärtssieg24%
Market-based forecastHeimsiegTier B · 46% selection probability
Market-based forecast · Tier B

Match prediction

Market-led fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg46% selection probability
Projected score1–1União São JoãoComercial SP
Expected goals2.27Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Unter61% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein54% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
46% / 30% / 24%SpielergebnisHeimsieg46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Comercial SP win (23.9%)Doppelte Chance1X76.1%1.31
Über 39% · Unter 61%Goals 2.5Unter61%1.64
Ja 46% · Nein 54%Beide Teams treffenNein54%1.85
2.27 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
10.0 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Reference market used for this forecast

This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.

Displayed margin12.1%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimKeine
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
União São João win46%2.171.9545.8%
Unentschieden30%3.332.9030.8%
Comercial SP win24%4.173.8023.5%

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

União São João1.34

Heim share of expected goals 59%

Total expected goals2.27Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Über 39% · Unter 61%

Comercial SP0.93

Auswärts share of expected goals 41%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 46% · Nein 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

União São João

1.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punkte5

SignalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Comercial SP

1.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkte7

SignalAuswärts matches under 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
24%
5
Points from supplied form
7
1.34
Expected goals
0.93
União São JoãoComercial SP
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-led fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01União São João signalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Comercial SP signalAuswärts matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

União São João vs Comercial SP FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 1–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

União São João Gewinn 46%,Unentschieden 30%,Comercial SP Gewinn 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.27 · Über 2.5 39% · Current selection Unter