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PRT Portugal - Segunda Liga · Round 1 ·

Vizela vs UD Leiria

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–12.80 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg40%
Unentschieden28%
Auswärtssieg32%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg40% selection probability
Projected score1–1VizelaUD Leiria
Expected goals2.80Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Über53% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
40% / 28% / 32%SpielergebnisHeimsieg40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.7%)Doppelte Chance1272.3%1.38
Über 53% · Unter 47%Goals 2.5Über53%1.89
Ja 57% · Nein 43%Beide Teams treffenJa57%1.75
2.80 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
9.3 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.4%Largest probability gapVizela winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Vizela win40%2.502.2040.4%-0.4 pp
Unentschieden28%3.573.2027.8%+0.2 pp
UD Leiria win32%3.132.8031.8%+0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Vizela1.34

Heim share of expected goals 47.9%

Total expected goals2.80Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 53% · Unter 47%

UD Leiria1.46

Auswärts share of expected goals 52.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 57% · Nein 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Vizela

1.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkte7

SignalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

UD Leiria

0.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Punkte1

SignalHeim clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
40%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
32%
7
Points from supplied form
1
1.34
Expected goals
1.46
VizelaUD Leiria
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Vizela signalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02UD Leiria signalHeim clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Vizela vs UD Leiria FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Vizela Gewinn 40%,Unentschieden 28%,UD Leiria Gewinn 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.80 · Über 2.5 53% · Current selection Über