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PRT Portugal - Segunda Liga · Round 1 ·

Tondela vs Amarante

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–12.46 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg40%
Unentschieden27%
Auswärtssieg33%
Baseline forecastHeimsiegTier C · 40% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg40% selection probability
Projected score1–1TondelaAmarante
Expected goals2.46Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Unter55% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa50% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
40% / 27% / 33%SpielergebnisHeimsieg40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.1%)Doppelte Chance1272.9%1.37
Über 45% · Unter 55%Goals 2.5Unter55%1.82
Ja 50% · Nein 50%Beide Teams treffenJa50%2.00
2.46 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
9.6 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
Tondela win40%2.50
Unentschieden27%3.70
Amarante win33%3.03

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Tondela1.30

Heim share of expected goals 52.8%

Total expected goals2.46Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 45% · Unter 55%

Amarante1.16

Auswärts share of expected goals 47.2%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 50% · Nein 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Tondela

1.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkte7

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Amarante

1.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punkte8

SignalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
40%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
33%
7
Points from supplied form
8
1.30
Expected goals
1.16
TondelaAmarante
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Tondela signalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Amarante signalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Tondela vs Amarante FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Tondela Gewinn 40%,Unentschieden 27%,Amarante Gewinn 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.46 · Über 2.5 45% · Current selection Unter