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PRT Portugal - Segunda Liga · Round 1 ·

Vizela vs UD Leiria

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.80 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr34%
Uafgjort28%
Udesejr38%
Full model forecastUdesejrTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callUdesejr38% selection probability
Projected score1–1VizelaUD Leiria
Expected goals2.80Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over53% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
34% / 28% / 38%KampresultatUdesejr38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.3%)Dobbeltchance1271.7%1.39
Over 53% · Under 47%Goals 2.5Over53%1.89
Ja 57% · Nej 43%Begge hold scorerJa57%1.75
2.80 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.3 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Vizela win34%2.94
Uafgjort28%3.57
UD Leiria win38%2.63

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Vizela1.34

Hjemme share of expected goals 47.9%

Total expected goals2.80Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 53% · Under 47%

UD Leiria1.46

Ude share of expected goals 52.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 57% · Nej 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Vizela

1.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Point7

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

UD Leiria

0.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Point1

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
34%
Vundet probability excluding draw
38%
7
Points from supplied form
1
1.34
Expected goals
1.46
VizelaUD Leiria
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Vizela signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02UD Leiria signalHjemme clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Vizela vs UD Leiria FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Udesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Vizela vundet 34%,Uafgjort 28%,UD Leiria vundet 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.80 · Over 2.5 53% · Current selection Over