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CHE Switzerland Super League · Spiel ·

St. Gallen vs Luzern

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–13.57 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg49%
Unentschieden25%
Auswärtssieg27%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg49% selection probability
Projected score2–1St. GallenLuzern
Expected goals3.57Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über69% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa67% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
49% / 25% / 27%SpielergebnisHeimsieg49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.9%)Doppelte Chance1275.1%1.33
Über 69% · Unter 31%Goals 2.5Über69%1.45
Ja 67% · Nein 33%Beide Teams treffenJa67%1.49
3.57 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
10.6 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
St. Gallen win49%2.04
Unentschieden25%4.00
Luzern win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

St. Gallen2.20

Heim share of expected goals 61.6%

Total expected goals3.57Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 69% · Unter 31%

Luzern1.37

Auswärts share of expected goals 38.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 67% · Nein 33%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

St. Gallen

2.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punkte12

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Luzern

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punkte6

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
49%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
27%
12
Points from supplied form
6
2.20
Expected goals
1.37
St. GallenLuzern
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01St. Gallen signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Luzern signalHeim matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

St. Gallen vs Luzern FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

St. Gallen Gewinn 49%,Unentschieden 25%,Luzern Gewinn 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.57 · Über 2.5 69% · Current selection Über