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CHE Switzerland Super League · Match ·

St Gallen vs Lucerne

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–13.57 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger49%
Oavgjort25%
Bortaseger27%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger49% selection probability
Projected score2–1St GallenLucerne
Expected goals3.57Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över69% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa67% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
49% / 25% / 27%MatchresultatHemmaseger49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.9%)Dubbelchans1275.1%1.33
Över 69% · Under 31%Goals 2.5Över69%1.45
Ja 67% · Nej 33%Båda lagen gör målJa67%1.49
3.57 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.6 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
St Gallen win49%2.04
Oavgjort25%4.00
Lucerne win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

St Gallen2.20

Hemma share of expected goals 61.6%

Total expected goals3.57Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 69% · Under 31%

Lucerne1.37

Borta share of expected goals 38.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 67% · Nej 33%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

St Gallen

2.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Poäng12

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Lucerne

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poäng6

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
49%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
27%
12
Points from supplied form
6
2.20
Expected goals
1.37
St GallenLucerne
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01St Gallen signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lucerne signalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

St Gallen vs Lucerne FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

St Gallen vunnen 49%,Oavgjort 25%,Lucerne vunnen 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.57 · Över 2.5 69% · Current selection Över