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DEU Deutschland - Bundesliga · Spiel ·

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.88 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg72%
Unentschieden16%
Auswärtssieg12%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 72% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg72% selection probability
Projected score2–1Borussia DortmundHamburger SV
Expected goals2.88Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Über55% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
72% / 16% / 12%SpielergebnisHeimsieg72%1.39
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Hamburger SV win (11.6%)Doppelte Chance1X88.4%1.13
Über 55% · Unter 45%Goals 2.5Über55%1.82
Ja 45% · Nein 55%Beide Teams treffenNein55%1.82
2.88 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
9.7 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.8%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.3 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Borussia Dortmund win72%1.391.3072%0.0 pp
Unentschieden16%6.255.7516.3%-0.3 pp
Hamburger SV win12%8.338.0011.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Borussia Dortmund2.19

Heim share of expected goals 76%

Total expected goals2.88Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 55% · Unter 45%

Hamburger SV0.69

Auswärts share of expected goals 24%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 45% · Nein 55%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Borussia Dortmund

2.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punkte12

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Hamburger SV

2.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punkte10

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
72%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
12%
12
Points from supplied form
10
2.19
Expected goals
0.69
Borussia DortmundHamburger SV
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Borussia Dortmund signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Hamburger SV signalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk28% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 16%.

Match questions

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 72% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Borussia Dortmund Gewinn 72%,Unentschieden 16%,Hamburger SV Gewinn 12%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.88 · Über 2.5 55% · Current selection Über