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DEU Tyskland - 2. Bundesliga · Round 1 ·

St. Pauli vs Greuther Fürth

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.88 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr44%
Uafgjort25%
Udesejr31%
Baseline forecastHjemmesejrTier C · 44% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr44% selection probability
Projected score2–1St. PauliGreuther Fürth
Expected goals2.88Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over55% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa58% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
44% / 25% / 31%KampresultatHjemmesejr44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.6%)Dobbeltchance1275.4%1.33
Over 55% · Under 45%Goals 2.5Over55%1.82
Ja 58% · Nej 42%Begge hold scorerJa58%1.72
2.88 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.0 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
St. Pauli win44%2.27
Uafgjort25%4.00
Greuther Fürth win31%3.23

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

St. Pauli1.59

Hjemme share of expected goals 55.2%

Total expected goals2.88Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 55% · Under 45%

Greuther Fürth1.29

Ude share of expected goals 44.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 58% · Nej 42%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

St. Pauli

2.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Point10

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Greuther Fürth

2.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Point10

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Vundet probability excluding draw
31%
10
Points from supplied form
10
1.59
Expected goals
1.29
St. PauliGreuther Fürth
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01St. Pauli signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Greuther Fürth signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

St. Pauli vs Greuther Fürth FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

St. Pauli vundet 44%,Uafgjort 25%,Greuther Fürth vundet 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.88 · Over 2.5 55% · Current selection Over