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NIR Nordirland - NIFL Premiership · Round 1 ·

Linfield vs Ballymena Utd

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.50 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr57%
Uafgjort26%
Udesejr17%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr57% selection probability
Projected score2–1LinfieldBallymena Utd
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under54% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej60% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
57% / 26% / 17%KampresultatHjemmesejr57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Ballymena Utd win (17%)Dobbeltchance1X83%1.20
Over 46% · Under 54%Goals 2.5Under54%1.85
Ja 40% · Nej 60%Begge hold scorerNej60%1.67
2.50 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.5 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Linfield win57%1.75
Uafgjort26%3.85
Ballymena Utd win17%5.88

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Linfield1.87

Hjemme share of expected goals 74.8%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 46% · Under 54%

Ballymena Utd0.63

Ude share of expected goals 25.2%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 40% · Nej 60%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Linfield

1.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Point6

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Ballymena Utd

1.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Point5

SignalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Vundet probability excluding draw
17%
6
Points from supplied form
5
1.87
Expected goals
0.63
LinfieldBallymena Utd
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Linfield signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ballymena Utd signalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Linfield vs Ballymena Utd FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Linfield vundet 57%,Uafgjort 26%,Ballymena Utd vundet 17%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · Over 2.5 46% · Current selection Under