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EUR Europe Friendlies · Match ·

Leganes vs Merida

Market-based forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–13.27 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger55%
Oavgjort25%
Bortaseger20%
Market-based forecastHemmasegerTier B · 55% selection probability
Market-based forecast · Tier B

Match prediction

Market-led fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger55% selection probability
Projected score2–1LeganesMerida
Expected goals3.27Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över63% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa65% for the selected side
Expected corners7.9Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
55% / 25% / 20%MatchresultatHemmaseger55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Merida win (20%)Dubbelchans1X80%1.25
Över 63% · Under 37%Goals 2.5Över63%1.59
Ja 65% · Nej 35%Båda lagen gör målJa65%1.54
3.27 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
7.9 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Reference market used for this forecast

This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.

Displayed margin11.4%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimIngen
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Leganes win55%1.821.6255.4%
Oavgjort25%4.003.5025.7%
Merida win20%5.004.7518.9%

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Leganes1.99

Hemma share of expected goals 60.9%

Total expected goals3.27Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 63% · Under 37%

Merida1.28

Borta share of expected goals 39.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 65% · Nej 35%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Leganes

0.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Poäng3

SignalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Merida

1.25pts / match
Spelade4Wins1Drawn2Losses1Poäng5

SignalHemma unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
55%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
20%
3
Points from supplied form
5
1.99
Expected goals
1.28
LeganesMerida
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-led fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Leganes signalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Merida signalHemma unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Leganes vs Merida FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Leganes vunnen 55%,Oavgjort 25%,Merida vunnen 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.27 · Över 2.5 63% · Current selection Över