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Lilleström vs Fredrikstad

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–12.23 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger48%
Oavgjort30%
Bortaseger23%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger48% selection probability
Projected score1–1LilleströmFredrikstad
Expected goals2.23Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under61% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej59% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
48% / 30% / 23%MatchresultatHemmaseger48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fredrikstad win (22.6%)Dubbelchans1X77.4%1.29
Över 39% · Under 61%Goals 2.5Under61%1.64
Ja 41% · Nej 59%Båda lagen gör målNej59%1.69
2.23 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
10.3 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Lilleström win48%2.08
Oavgjort30%3.33
Fredrikstad win23%4.35

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lilleström1.49

Hemma share of expected goals 66.8%

Total expected goals2.23Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 39% · Under 61%

Fredrikstad0.74

Borta share of expected goals 33.2%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 41% · Nej 59%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Lilleström

0.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Poäng2

SignalHemma failed to score: 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Fredrikstad

1.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Poäng9

SignalBorta won 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
23%
2
Points from supplied form
9
1.49
Expected goals
0.74
LilleströmFredrikstad
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lilleström signalHemma failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fredrikstad signalBorta won 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Lilleström vs Fredrikstad FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lilleström vunnen 48%,Oavgjort 30%,Fredrikstad vunnen 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.23 · Över 2.5 39% · Current selection Under