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Malmö FF vs Degerfors

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.86 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger53%
Oavgjort26%
Bortaseger21%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 53% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger53% selection probability
Projected score2–1Malmö FFDegerfors
Expected goals2.86Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Över54% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa51% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
53% / 26% / 21%MatchresultatHemmaseger53%1.89
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Degerfors win (21%)Dubbelchans1X79%1.27
Över 54% · Under 46%Goals 2.5Över54%1.85
Ja 51% · Nej 49%Båda lagen gör målJa51%1.96
2.86 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.2 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Malmö FF win53%1.89
Oavgjort26%3.85
Degerfors win21%4.76

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Malmö FF1.97

Hemma share of expected goals 68.9%

Total expected goals2.86Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 54% · Under 46%

Degerfors0.89

Borta share of expected goals 31.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 51% · Nej 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Malmö FF

2.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poäng10

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Degerfors

0.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn0Losses5Poäng0

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
53%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
21%
10
Points from supplied form
0
1.97
Expected goals
0.89
Malmö FFDegerfors
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Malmö FF signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Degerfors signalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk47% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Malmö FF vs Degerfors FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 53% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Malmö FF vunnen 53%,Oavgjort 26%,Degerfors vunnen 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.86 · Över 2.5 54% · Current selection Över