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ENG Anglia - National League · Round 1 ·

Carlisle vs Worthing

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score2–12.88 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde43%
Egal25%
Victorie oaspeți32%
Baseline forecastVictorie gazdeTier C · 43% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde43% selection probability
Projected score2–1CarlisleWorthing
Expected goals2.88Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Peste55% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăDa58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Peste 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
43% / 25% / 32%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.6%)Șansă dublă1275.4%1.33
Peste 55% · Sub 45%Goals 2.5Peste55%1.82
Da 58% · Nu 42%Ambele echipe marcheazăDa58%1.72
2.88 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
9.9 expected match cornersCornerePeste 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
Carlisle win43%2.33
Egal25%4.00
Worthing win32%3.13

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Carlisle1.57

Gazde share of expected goals 54.5%

Total expected goals2.88Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 55% · Sub 45%

Worthing1.31

Oaspeți share of expected goals 45.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 58% · Nu 42%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Carlisle

2.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Puncte11

SignalGazde unbeaten 5/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Worthing

2.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Puncte12

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Câștig probability excluding draw
32%
11
Points from supplied form
12
1.57
Expected goals
1.31
CarlisleWorthing
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Carlisle signalGazde unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Worthing signalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Carlisle vs Worthing FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Carlisle câștig 43%,Egal 25%,Worthing câștig 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.88 · Peste 2.5 55% · Current selection Peste