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DEU Niemcy - Bundesliga II · Round 1 ·

Darmstadt vs Holstein Kiel

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score2–12.83 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy43%
Remis27%
Wygrana gości30%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy43% selection probability
Projected score2–1DarmstadtHolstein Kiel
Expected goals2.83Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Powyżej54% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląTak55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Powyżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
43% / 27% / 30%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.7%)Podwójna szansa1273.3%1.36
Powyżej 54% · Poniżej 46%Goals 2.5Powyżej54%1.85
Tak 55% · Nie 45%Obie drużyny strzeląTak55%1.82
2.83 total expected goalsDokładny wynik2–1
10.4 expected match cornersRożnePowyżej 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.3%Largest probability gapHolstein Kiel winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePrognozaUczciwy kursReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Darmstadt win43%2.332.2042.8%+0.2 pp
Remis27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Holstein Kiel win30%3.333.1030.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Darmstadt1.73

Gospodarze share of expected goals 61.1%

Total expected goals2.83Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 54% · Poniżej 46%

Holstein Kiel1.10

Goście share of expected goals 38.9%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitTak 55% · Nie 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Darmstadt

1.00pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punkty5

SignalGospodarze failed to score: 2/5

Goście-context · form sequence

Holstein Kiel

0.80pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkty4

SignalGoście matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
30%
5
Points from supplied form
4
1.73
Expected goals
1.10
DarmstadtHolstein Kiel
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Darmstadt signalGospodarze failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Holstein Kiel signalGoście matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Darmstadt vs Holstein Kiel FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Darmstadt wygrana 43%,Remis 27%,Holstein Kiel wygrana 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.83 · Powyżej 2.5 54% · Current selection Powyżej