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DEU Germania - Bundesliga II · Round 1 ·

Darmstadt vs Holstein Kiel

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–12.83 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa43%
Pareggio27%
Vittoria ospite30%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa43% selection probability
Projected score2–1DarmstadtHolstein Kiel
Expected goals2.83Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra54% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
43% / 27% / 30%Esito partitaVittoria casa43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.7%)Doppia Chance1273.3%1.36
Sopra 54% · Sotto 46%Goals 2.5Sopra54%1.85
Sì 55% · No 45%Entrambe le squadre segnano55%1.82
2.83 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
10.4 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.3%Largest probability gapHolstein Kiel winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Darmstadt win43%2.332.2042.8%+0.2 pp
Pareggio27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Holstein Kiel win30%3.333.1030.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Darmstadt1.73

Casa share of expected goals 61.1%

Total expected goals2.83Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 54% · Sotto 46%

Holstein Kiel1.10

Trasferta share of expected goals 38.9%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 55% · No 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Darmstadt

1.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punti5

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Holstein Kiel

0.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punti4

SignalTrasferta matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Vinta probability excluding draw
30%
5
Points from supplied form
4
1.73
Expected goals
1.10
DarmstadtHolstein Kiel
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Darmstadt signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Holstein Kiel signalTrasferta matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Darmstadt vs Holstein Kiel FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Darmstadt vinta 43%,Pareggio 27%,Holstein Kiel vinta 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.83 · Sopra 2.5 54% · Current selection Sopra