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JPN Japonia - J-League · Mecz ·

Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score2–12.73 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy43%
Remis29%
Wygrana gości28%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy43% selection probability
Projected score2–1Fagiano OkayamaV-Varen Nagasaki
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Powyżej51% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląTak55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Powyżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
43% / 29% / 28%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes V-Varen Nagasaki win (28.2%)Podwójna szansa1X71.8%1.39
Powyżej 51% · Poniżej 49%Goals 2.5Powyżej51%1.96
Tak 55% · Nie 45%Obie drużyny strzeląTak55%1.82
2.73 total expected goalsDokładny wynik2–1
9.8 expected match cornersRożnePowyżej 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.1%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.1 pp
OutcomePrognozaUczciwy kursReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Fagiano Okayama win43%2.332.1543%0.0 pp
Remis29%3.453.2028.9%+0.1 pp
V-Varen Nagasaki win28%3.573.3028%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Fagiano Okayama1.51

Gospodarze share of expected goals 55.3%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 51% · Poniżej 49%

V-Varen Nagasaki1.22

Goście share of expected goals 44.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitTak 55% · Nie 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Fagiano Okayama

1.20pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punkty6

SignalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 4/5

Goście-context · form sequence

V-Varen Nagasaki

1.40pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkty7

SignalGospodarze clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
28%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.51
Expected goals
1.22
Fagiano OkayamaV-Varen Nagasaki
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Fagiano Okayama signalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02V-Varen Nagasaki signalGospodarze clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Fagiano Okayama wygrana 43%,Remis 29%,V-Varen Nagasaki wygrana 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Powyżej 2.5 51% · Current selection Powyżej